Spatial aspects of the dioxin risk formation in the Baltic Sea: A systematic review.

Dioxins have been an inconvenience to the Baltic Sea ecosystem for decades. Although the concentrations in the environment and biota have continuously decreased, dioxins still pose a risk to human health. The risk and its formation vary in different parts of the Baltic Sea, due to variability in the environmental and societal factors affecting it. This paper presents a systematic literature review and knowledge synthesis about the regional dioxin risk formation in four sub-areas of the Baltic Sea and evaluates, whether systemic approach changes our thinking about the risk and its effective management. We studied the dioxin flux from atmospheric deposition to the Baltic Sea food webs, accumulation to two commercially and culturally important fish species, Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) and Baltic salmon (Salmo salar), and further to risk group members of four Baltic countries. Based on 46 studies, we identified 20 quantifiable variables and indexed them for commensurable regional comparison. Spatial differences in dioxin pollution, environmental conditions, food web dynamics, and the following dioxin concentrations in herring and salmon, together with fishing and fish consumption, affect how the final health risk builds up. In the southern Baltic Sea, atmospheric pollution levels are relatively high and environmental processes to decrease bioavailability of dioxins unfavorable, but the growth is fast, which curb the bioaccumulation of dioxins in the biota. In the North, long-range atmospheric pollution is minor compared to South, but the local pollution and slower growth leads to higher bioaccumulation rates. However, based on our results, the most remarkable differences in the dioxin risk formation between the areas arise from the social sphere: the emissions, origin of national catches, and cultural differences in fish consumption. The article suggests that acknowledging spatial characteristics of socio-ecological systems that generate environmental risks may aid to direct local focus in risk management.

Implementing Bayesian networks for ISO 31000:2018-based maritime oil spill risk management: State-of-art, implementation benefits and challenges, and future research directions.

The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.

The effects of climate change on Baltic salmon: Framing the problem in collaboration with expert stakeholders.

In the Baltic Sea region, salmon are valued for the ecological, economic, and cultural benefits they provide. However, these fish are threatened due to historical overfishing, disease, and reduced access to spawning rivers. Climate change may pose another challenge for salmon management. Therefore, we conducted a problem-framing study to explore the effects climate change may have on salmon and the socio-ecological system they are embedded within. Addressing this emerging issue will require the cooperation of diverse stakeholders and the integration of their knowledge and values in a contentious management context. Therefore, we conducted this problem framing as a participatory process with stakeholders, whose mental models and questionnaire responses form the basis of this study. By framing the climate change problem in this way, we aim to provide a holistic understanding of the problem and incorporate stakeholder perspectives into the management process from an early stage to better address their concerns and establish common ground. We conclude that considering climate change is relevant for Baltic salmon management, although it may not be the most pressing threat facing these fish. Stakeholders disagree about whether climate change will harm or benefit salmon, when it will become a relevant issue in the Baltic context, and whether or not management efforts can mitigate any negative impacts climate change may have on salmon and their fishery. Nevertheless, by synthesizing the stakeholders' influence diagrams, we found 15 themes exemplifying: (1) how climate change may affect salmon, (2) goals for salmon management considering climate change, and (3) strategies for achieving those goals. Further, the stakeholders tended to focus on the riverine environment and the salmon life stages occurring therein, potentially indicating the perceived vulnerability of these life stages to climate change. Interestingly, however, the stakeholders tended to focus on traditional fishery management measures, like catch quotas, to meet their goals for these fish considering climate change. Further, social variables, like "politics," "international cooperation," and "employment" comprised a large proportion of the stakeholders' diagrams, demonstrating the importance of these factors for salmon management.

Correction to: Health effects of nutrients and environmental pollutants in Baltic herring and salmon: a quantitative benefit-risk assessment.

It was highlighted that the original article [1] contained a formatting error in the equations.

Health effects of nutrients and environmental pollutants in Baltic herring and salmon: a quantitative benefit-risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Health risks linked with dioxin in fish remain a complex policy issue. Fatty Baltic fish contain persistent pollutants, but they are otherwise healthy food. We studied the health benefits and risks associated with Baltic herring and salmon in four countries to identify critical uncertainties and to facilitate an evidence-based discussion. METHODS: We performed an online survey investigating consumers' fish consumption and its motivation in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Sweden. Dioxin and methylmercury concentrations were estimated based on Finnish studies. Exposure-response functions for several health endpoints were evaluated and quantified based on the scientific literature. We also quantified the infertility risk of men based on a recent European risk assessment estimating childhood dioxin exposure and its effect on sperm concentration later in life. RESULTS: Baltic herring and salmon contain omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin D, and the beneficial impact of these fishes on cardiovascular diseases, mortality, and the risk of depression and cancer clearly outweighs risks of dioxins and methylmercury in people older than 45 years of age and in young men. Young women may expose their children to pollutants during pregnancy and breast feeding. This study suggests that even in this critical subgroup, the risks are small and the health benefits are greater than or at least similar to the health risks. Value of information analysis demonstrated that the remaining scientific uncertainties are not large. In contrast, there are several critical uncertainties that are inherently value judgements, such as whether exceeding the tolerable weekly intake is an adverse outcome as such; and whether or not subgroup-specific restrictions are problematic. CONCLUSIONS: The potential health risks attributable to dioxins in Baltic fish have more than halved in the past 10 years. The new risk assessment issued by the European Food Safety Authority clearly increases the fraction of the population exceeding the tolerable dioxin intake, but nonetheless, quantitative estimates of net health impacts change only marginally. Increased use of small herring (which have less pollutants) is a no-regret option. A more relevant value-based policy discussion rather than research is needed to clarify official recommendations related to dioxins in fish.

Toward integrative management advice of water quality, oil spills, and fishery in the Gulf of Finland: a Bayesian approach.

Understanding and managing ecosystems affected by several anthropogenic stressors require methods that enable analyzing the joint effects of different factors in one framework. Further, as scientific knowledge about natural systems is loaded with uncertainty, it is essential that analyses are based on a probabilistic approach. We describe in this article about building a Bayesian decision model, which includes three stressors present in the Gulf of Finland. The outcome of the integrative model is a set of probability distributions for future nutrient concentrations, herring stock biomass, and achieving the water quality targets set by HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. These distributions can then be used to derive the probability of reaching the management targets for each alternative combination of management actions.

Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods.

A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.